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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  November 25, 2009 9:00am-11:00am EST

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>> this is back to the '70s group lived through those. >> i know. >> we had things in the economy and in washington and around the world that were some would say as bad as we have now. >> happening again with oil and gold and everything else. >> we got through that and it was fine. warren buffett, i think, made the point as well as anyone, with his actions, we're going to get through this. we're going through crazy times with crazy political agendas, in terms of business. maybe fine for other things. >> you like the journal. >> and the fair lands. >> you love that. >> happy thanksgiving. we are thankful for everything. join us on black friday. ly be here with carl. "squawk on the street" is next. live from the financial capital of the world in the heart of lower manhattan, the this is "squawk on the street." good morning, everyone. i'm erin burnett. >> i'm matt nesto in for mark haines. here's what we are tracking
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front and center, bright and early, three key pieces of economic data already out this morning. there is still more to come on this smorgasboard of data. >> jobless claims fell under 500,000 last week. consumer spending and income, both rose in october. income a lot less than spending. so we'll find out whether that's good or bad in just a couple of moments. >> and, of course, we are watching the pre-holiday travel situation at the airports as well as weather all over this country of ours as we get set to roll and head home for the holidays, wherever that may be. >> looks like there's some sort of police practice thing going on on whatever street that may be. first, though, let's hit the markets. mary thompson is at the big board with us on this wednesday. good morning. >> good morning. as you said, the futures are pointed to a higher open this morning. this is the dow and the s&p 500, very close to their highs for the year for the dow it's about
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17 points away for the s&p it's just about five points away. the positive tone helped in part because of the continued weakness in the dollar. there's been an inverse relationship there as the dollar moves lower, stocks move higher. durable goods were mixed. and the markets like that from the economic data released earlier today's. these are some of the stocks we're keeping watch on. gold stocks are moving higher in the premarket as the metal has exceeded or moved to a new record over on 11,000 -- excuse me, $1180 an ounce. watch on retailers in the wake of earnings being released ahead of black friday. tiffany up 7% in the premarket. third quarter better than expected. j. crew up 7% as the third quarter numbers beat, too. we're keeping watch on deere. sales week for the fourth quarter. stock under pressure in the premarket. let's get a check on check and for that we go to mike huckman at the nasdaq. >> thanks. according to the premarket indicator right now it looks like the economic data are nudging this market just a little bit higher, up 0.3% right
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now. again, according to the premarket indicator. but we're going to have to wait and see what effects, if any, for example, trading and shares of microsoft is going to have on this market today because the company did announce late yesterday cfo is leaving to run another company. microsoft is promoting ahead of its business division to take its place. goldman sachs is telling the clients they don't think it's going to have an impact on the stock. if it does, isi is telling its clients investors should be compared to buy on the weakness in shares of microsoft. in the brewing battle over control of deetrich coffee, it looks the $32 a share offer from green mountain better than the $30.35 from pete's coffee. but pete's coffee says, it ain't done yet. rick? >> without a doubt, there's two areas with need to pay close attention to. one is the treasury market. why? yields are elevated just a bit. when you think of the four handle, the drop in claims, 466,
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the drop in continuing claims, one would think yields, at least old school type trading would have jumped. why didn't they? there's a variety of reasons. i'll take the path of least resistance and say there's still questions of 466,000, all the different programs and benefit extensions is rally giving you an accurate picture. the real big stories is the dollar index, getting walloped today. a couple of reasons? dollar/yen. under 88. pay attention. now, go back to bertha. >> even more so is the dollar/euro. the euro a nice move up 1 fine $50. dollar index is strengthening a bit. we're seeing a little support when it comes to oil prices and commodity prices. the fundamentals, a bit mixed picture. that four handle on jobless claims are encouraging. american petroleum institute inventory numbers yesterday ahead of today's government numbers were bearish.
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we saw a build in gasoline as well as a build in crude. we'll get those numbers at 10:30 this morning. also going to get natural gas because of the holiday at noon today. look at gold. as mary mentioned today in the pit, as we opened we set a new record above $1183 on ounce. >> thank you. if you thought asia was going to fold up their tents in a big rally, china's shanghai composite rebounding 2.1%. nikkei adding half a percent. and hang seng in hong kong as well as australia's benchmark both up 0.8%. the bombay sensex is strong as well. guy johnson is live in london to show us what is happening in that part of the world. >> generally higher. certainly the day you guys just head helping us out as well. most of the european continent doing well. paris and frankfurt. i want to highlight what is happening in greece today.
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athens is down very, very sharply. it's down by nearly 4%. 3 1/2% at the moment. there are a lot of nervous investors surrounding the greek economy at the moment. they are worried about the fiscal position. athens is generating. and this is very much one of the those stories about the peripheral euro zone countries causing problems for the whole of the euro zone. we just quickly get back to the numbers. stocks currently trading just off session highs, up by 1 1/2%. rick was mentioning euro dollar. i want to add another reason to the mix as to why the euro is is gaining strength. there is a lot of talk over here about the fact that a 12-month tender which was meant to be at a fixed rate for european banks could be at an adjust ability rate. this is the ecb pumping money into the system. that is taken as a signature until that the ecb may be getting ready to high grades in advance of the fed. that's quite big. the money markets are watching that very, very carefully right now. guys, back over to you. >> thank you very much, guy
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johnson. and initial claims, durable goods, personal income, all key pieces of economic data, all out within the past 35 minutes. markets have been reacting. a little bit to the upside. let's get inside those numbers and find out what the tale is they truly tell about our economy. steve? >> decidedly mixed data. jobless claims number caught some people's attention. we'll do that last. let's first do the income spending numbers. up 0.2%. right on target. the spending number is hotter, up 0.7%. the year over year core pce, that's not year over year, is that year over year now 0.2%? i guess so. the 0.1% was the month to month expectation. durable goods now down 0.6% on expectation of rising 0.3%. and tender was higher. warning out the ex-transportation down 1.3%. the ex-defense also doing well. most of the decline must have been a decline in defense. look inside, civilian aircraft
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up huge. business investment down. machinery down. a lot of downs right there. that's how you got the overall down number. let's look month to month at the business investment number which is a key piece that's watched by economists new orders. right there you saw, one, two, three out of the past six months up and three down. pretty much a wash when it comes to business investment. and year over year it's going to show a very sharp decline, although bouncing back off the bottom. here are the claims data down 35,000 more than expected. 466,000 is the number. economists were looking for 498,000. continuing claims, 5.4 million. so mixed data but waiting for some good numbers when it came to jobs and jobless claims break that 500,000 measure. maybe that means that we're on the path to jobs. back to matt in the nyse. >> appreciate it. nice tie, by the way. two big hemings of news affecting millions of americans the day before thanksgiving. major recall from toyota and, of course, the airline traffic picture.
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phil lebeau covering both of them live from o'hare this morning. phil? >> and we're going to talk about the thanksgiving travel situation in just a little bit. but toyota holding a conference call this morning to address a recall fix affecting 3.8% vehicles as you take a look at shares of toyota, this is what toyota has announced this morning. it is going to be replacing the accelerators on 3.8 million vehicles. remember, these accelerators on the vehicles ran ahead of to personal to be stuck under the floor mats. as a result, toyota is redesigning and replacing the floor mats and in some mods dells toyota will be installing a brake override system. that's the story we're going to be following throughout the day. that's the story with toyota. now for the thanksgiving travel situation, we talk about it every year. the big rush is on. the day before thanksgiving. beginning of a busy weekend for the airlines. 2.3 million people are going to be flying around the country this weekend. that's a decline of 6% to 7%
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compared to last year. many of those people who are flying today or on sunday or on monday, they're paying a peak flying fee of $10 to $20 depending on the airline. if you talked to those passengers, they're not real happy about it. >> this is our first time flying on thanksgiving so we were a little shocked at the prices. but, you know, it's great to see family during this time of year. >> i'm not happy about it but what are you going to do? they charge it and if you want to travel, you have to pay it. >> kind of expected it at this point. every time around the holidays, you don't expect to be paying a little bit extra, well, i don't know where you've been then. it's kind of how it's always been. >> take a look at the airline index, up 35% year to date. keep in mind we're going to see the peak flying fares added more frequently in the future. today, sunday, and monday, another $10 to $20 talked on to the ticket price. christmas, new year's, guys, this is the wave of the future. airlines are tacking on the fees
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because they know that people are stuck. if you're going to fly, you don't have a whole lot of choices. guys, back to you. >> just says the holidays, doesn't it? the season of giving. it's warm. i'll tell you what else is warm, moments away, the faber report. talk about binging. david is going to look at clear wire's debt binge. and computer glitches getting a lot of coverage lately. passengers on the tarmac for hours causing fines. flying can be terrible. executive director of fliersrights.org is going to tell us what to change. by the way, it literally can stink, too. we'll be back.
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welcome back. over the last few weeks i've been talking agent the increasing generosity of the debt markets. the willingness of many investors to continue to go further and further out on the risk curve, which has resulted in, well, lots of money flooding to corporations and even to fund leveraged buyouts. leverage buyouts that are relatively small, but never the lusz being done now at debt levels that equal 5 to 5 1/2 years worth of ebitda, something we have nod not seen since 2007 when the leverage ratios were at that level or higher.
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yesterday, late in the day another good example of just how strong the debt markets are, or perhaps too strong. don't forget fed minutes we saw at least some concern amongst members that there play be excessive risk taking in financial markets as a result of how low interest rates are. but clear wire, the first company out there that is building -- or the first that will be successfully, it would appear, completing a 4g network -- more on that in a moment -- majority owned by sprint but also owned by comcast, intel, and by public shareholders. priced another $920 million, 12% notes. doing 15, that was last night. upped it from $540 million. the company has raised $2.8 billion in debt just over the last couple of weeks. if you recall, they did a $1.85 billion offering that helped them take out $1.4 billion in bonds that were out there that
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stepped up each quarter or so in interest rate. and so they were onerous. they took those out, interestingly, again, to show just how much things have improved overall. it's not just the stock market, it's the bond market as well. you could have bought clearwire debt that $1.45 billion issue at 50 cents on the dollar at the beginning of the year. it was worth about $700 million. taken out at par. and now you have the company, as i said, last night increasing from $540 million to $920 million. an offering that they hadn't even necessarily believed they could get done at all, not that long ago. take a look at high yield, of course, and where yields are and where yields have come from. you can see what we're talking about there in terms of a lott of activity in this market. a lot of isssuancissuance. some people raising their hand saying, ooh, it's getting a little frothy out there. 4g, we'll be talking more about
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that in the next year to year and a half because it is going to change, change the world potentially. i know that sounds a little strong. but after speaking with the likes of ivan from verizon and paul jacobs from qualcomm and google over the last few weeks, i can tell you without a doubt that when the 4g networks are completed, and clearwire is raising all of that money to build this network, they are going to see some serious changes in what you can do with that device in your hand. really serious changes. all right. here's a look at clearwire. of course, sprint, as i said, does control clearwire. at some point it may feel the need to buy it in completely because this is sprint's 4g play. clearwire, without them, sprint has no 4g. at&t is building their own. >> thank you very much. appreciate it, mr. faber. okay. let's take a look at futures here. up just a little bit. off the highs of the session, but it's likely going to be a
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very light volume day. and often on this holiday shortened week, that would mean a much higher day. we'll see. as we close it on the opening bell, the word on the street and buzz beyond from our market watchers, straight ahead. and than the next piece of economic data on tap this ultimate day before the turkey goes down, the final reading from michigan, big blue, consumer sentiment reading. we're on the lookout for that number. we're going to bring it to you live right at 9:55 a.m. eastern time. as we count you down to christmas we look at one of the top son coupler stocks of the year. here it is. big lots having a big year.
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you're looking at the futures. looking for a slightly higher open here today. trying to snap that trend, the losing streak if you will, over the past four or five days. strong open, will it last, is the question. we've got some precedent. a lot of these pre-thanksgiving days. here to give us insight, the word on the street is warren meyers, heston floor. also dave rovelli is standing by. >> it's been light volume for months. >> like i mentioned the other day, you can take a little grain of salt with that because so much of the fragmentation in the marketplace.
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it's definitely been down. we tend to be up the day before and day after thanksgiving. the futures are indicating an uptrend right now. i think the day is going to be determined on the dollar and housing numbers that come out at 10:00. >> why do you think that as opposed to what we've seen already? pretty big numbers. >> but they were modest. the employment numbers were a little bit better. the trend seems to be picking up there. durable goods numbers are weak. those wash each other out. housing is a big issue. jobs seem to be a biggish shusz. jobs are better if the housing market looks like it's stabilize a little, we might continue this up trend today. >> quickly, we look at the post-thanksgiving to christmas tends to be 61% of the time a positive stretch. >> i think, you know, i think like we mentioned the other day, a lot have professional traders locked in their profits for the year. we're going to continue to see weak, light volume. underleague me pre sure up based on the declining dollar. >> all right. he's got a nice autumn tie on,
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erin. that's the word on the street. what's the buzz? >> relatlet's get the buzz. midtown manhattan dave rovelli is joining us from cthere. it's going to be a light volume day. what do you do? >> erin, ride the wave. and stocks are going to go higher, like you said. yesterday was the worst volume day in a long time. stocks will probably continue to go higher. on monday, we have tend of the month. we probably see a rally through monday. >> a rally through monday. and then what? >> well, i agree with art cashin. he actually stole my thunder. he was on before. but what you're seeing now, since october 19th, when the s&p first hit 1100, the s&p is flat. nasdaq is flat. russell's down 5%. the dow is up 400 points. you're seeing a flight to quality. guys are wrapping up their positions. going to high-quality stocks, dividend-paying stocks. i think the rally is starting to taper off. >> so taper off. are you looking for any sort of,
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i don't know, a real correction or a move between now and the end of the year, or no? >> not a real correction. i think we'll be safe until probably mid january. then we'll see what type of taxes are going to raise. see the mortgages reset. then i'm going start to get nervous probably around late january, early february. >> mr. rovelli, thank you. happy thanks giving. >> happy thanksgiving, erin. we've got the final countdown to the opening bell coming up on the other side of this very brief break. we will have a higher open on this day before thanksgiving.
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t. oh please. you got the presentation? oh yeah right here. let me stow that for you, sir. thank you. you know, just to be safe i used fedex office print online.
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oh you did? yeah -- they printed and bound 20 copies of the presentation, shipped it to portland, they're gonna be there waiting for us. that's a good idea. yeah. you have a nice flight. thank you. (announcer) print online...you upload your document -- we'll take care of the rest. ♪ [ male announcer ] the day you give someone a lexus is just the first of many memories you'll make with it. [ squeals ] ♪ [ tires screech ] [ tires screech ] ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event, with some of the best values of the year. special lease offers now available on the 2010 es 350. now through january 4th. on the 2010 es 350. [bell ringing] the way the stock market's been acting lately you may wonder if you've been doing the right thing. is the advice you've been getting helping or hurting? are the fees you're paying really worth it?
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td ameritrade's fees are fair and straight-forward. their research is independent and unbiased. their investment consultants are knowledgeable and there when you need them. so why not talk to one? announcer: call today to schedule a free investment check-up, or visit a td ameritrade branch. you are watching cnbc's "squawk on the street" live from the new york stock exchange on the wednesday before the thanksgiving holiday here in the united states. the opening bell is going to ring in just about -- just under three minutes' time. minutes before the bell, initial jobless claims coming in under the 500,000 mark. 466,000, the level.
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it sounds high, and it is. but it is an improvement past that key level. consumer spending in the meantime rising in the month of october and the dollar falling. gold setting a new record. $1,180 an ounce. matt? >> as we burn ourselves toward the opening bell, joined by larry levin for some insight here today. it is worse than expected, larry, in terms of that jobs figure. given enough catalyst to buy here or just the old weak dollar story again? >> matt, regardless of the economic data, the trend is higher. technically the s&p is strong. i don't believe fundamentally it's supported but technically it's strong. overnight, trade up to 1111 in the s&p. haven't seen that level in a long time. it couldn't surprise me at all today, five points higher than what we're going to open. if we did, even though elt will be light volume you'll see the volume pick up a little bit there. >> to you expect to see any leadership change? telecom stocks have been like
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crazy hot for some reason. >> yeah. i think as far as leadership is concerned the thing that people are going to watch over the next four or five weeks are retailers. telecom is something we'll probably keep an eye on in january. talk about the new year and various technology that's coming out. i think retailers are probably what people will watch going forward. with that being said, regardless even if christmas numbers start to show a little bit of weakness, which i don't think is going to happen, i think the numbers are going to be pumped up a little bit. i think this market still again is trending higher. we'll see in my opinion come january and going next year is some kind of pullback but not until the start of the year. >> what's interesting, the week dollar is not helping the price of oil, which is down right now. the price of gold is at a record of 1180 as i speak. >> absolutely. you know, the gold is almost in the same situation as we saw oil a while back. basically people are stepping over each other to be long gold. one thing to keep in mind, one thing that i think gold is making a big move, investment dollars out there, matt.
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a lot more people, stock market is a decent amount higher. i believe we went above $1,000 previously. >> how cool is it to have your remarks followed by a round of applause? >> doesn't happen very often. >> look at that. nicely timed. happy thanks giving. >> two seconds away from the bells. they will ring now, yes. here at the big board, po petro, and at the nasdaq, glg life tech corporation, ticker glgl, a supplier of the food and beverage sweetener stevia. let's get to our market reporters standing by. we begin with mary who is here with us. hello. >> hey, erin. we've got a slight gain in the dow jones industrial average up four points. the s&p 500 is poised to hit its highest level for the year, 1110
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is the high for the year on the s&p 500. right now up fractionally. what we're watching today, the stock market is expected to get some support from the weaker dollar today. also the news on jobless claims below 500,000 this year in the prior week. gold is at a new record today above 1180 an ounce. the metals and miners are moving higher. if you look behind me while the crowd has disappeared. earlier, a crowd here because tiffany and j. crew, both stocks here. both indicated to open higher after they both reported stronger than expected numbers. tiffany third quarter numbers came in nine cents ahead of estimates once you take out charges by europe and asia and cost containments as well. j. crew's results are held by 8%. also expansion of margins. very good on third quarter, helped by strong sales of fall merchandise. deere under pressure because of weak sales. watch toyota, fixing
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accelerators in over 4 million vehicles. ailg, watching that, too, because its ceo has signed a non-compete clause. he was making noise about possibly leaving the company. right now the dow jones industrial average jumped five points. let's look at the nasdaq. for that we go to mike huckman. mike? >> good morning, mary. right now we are up just a smidge genern here at the nasda. they are talking about a light volume day. here, not much of a reaction to the economic data we got. we are continuing to watch shares of microsoft. they are down more than half a percent right now with the company announcing the cfo is leaving to run another company. it is promoting ahead of the business division to take its place. goldman sachs didn't think this was going to impact the stock. but isi's analyst said if it did, investors should be buying on the weakness here today. myspace, bio pharma doing a two-drug hook of up with insight. shares up 9%. company is going to get $210
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million cash money right now from novartis. potential for a bunch more over time and royalties and milestones. target raised by lazard. human genome sciences filed for fda approval of a drug for hepatitis c. farmersmarket.cnbc.com. let's go down to bertha at the nym nymex. >> thank you, mike. we've got the dollar strengthening off of a low of 7439. we're now at light dollar index at 74.59. we're seeing commodities come up a little bit. a little bit lower when it comes to oil prices. we'll be getting the weekly inventories numbers today for both crude and natural gas because of thanksgiving holiday. and so far the indicators that we're likely to see a build in gasoline which is fairly bearish for the complex. as far as the dollar moves, it once again with that dollar index falling to a 15-month low, we saw gold again push to a
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fresh new hyatt 1183 an ounce. platinum is falling along with as well. going to 1482 as a fresh new high today. let's move on over to rick santelli who is back in -- >> absolutely, bertha. shoutout to j.t., my source. you know, a lot of these traders are now watching nsa, nonseasonal lly adjusted jobles claims. i'm not going to make a claim one way or the other, but not seasonally adjusted has been moving up. even though you saw 466,000 on nifshl, initial, it's up 68,000 if you didn't adjust. something to think about. why do i bring it up? interest rates should have popped much higher if that number was really representative of what it implies on the drop in jobless. that said, we're going to see job creation. in m. question that. of course, the big story is the dollar. whether you look at the dollar index, rounding 74 1/2, round
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87 1/2 on the dollar/yen. if you're long the dollar index and you're looking as many were, hey, it's going to bounce, now it's below a 11 you might start to cecil stops down here. it's just a trading dynamic that could kick in, especially in front of a holiday environment. erin, back to you. >> thank you very much, mr. santelli. quick check on the markets. this is a whole lot of nothing right now. we will see. light volume days, big swings and exciting market watching. we'll see if we get that today. let's get the cnbc edge. fritz meyer is here to do that. rod smith, riverfront investment group. good to have both of you with us. mixed economic data this morning as steve was going through with personal income and spending and jobless claims and durable goods. all in when you put that into your little pile of data, do you think that we're going to have an economy that justifies the
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market going higher? >> yes, i do. i think the challenge for investors is that this is an economy that's not great for main street because i not creating jobs. but it's wonderful for wall street because while we have no v-shaped recovery in the economy, we do have a v-shaped recovery in profits. i think this is the -- you had a guest on saying momentum was great but the fundamentals don't justify it. in all likelihood, earnings for the s&p are going to be between $70 and $80 next year. put a 15 multiple on that, long-run average and way below the level of last ten years and you get a 10.50 to 1200 trading range. i think the fundamentals do justify where the market is. they keep the fed printing money and liquidity supporting the markets like gold as well. >> what do you say, fritz meyer? >> that's funny, i was going to say precisely the same thing. fundamentals do justify a higher
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stock market. all of the key data that i watch, the isms, leis, unemployment claims, temp hiring, house prices, you name it, have been pointing to a gradually improving economy. and economic recovery will drive profits recovery. as to valuation, if you just assumed 1200 on the s&p 500 five weeks from now, that would represent less than 16 times the quurnt consensus view for 2010 earnings. if my mind, that's reasonable. i think that's $77 in earnings estimate next year is probably going to be light. >> i am so -- i feel high, i'm so happy. this economic outlook so clearly there will be no need for a second stimulus, right, fritz? >> i would not want to see a second stimulus. i think a lot of stimulus -- i'mei' elements to the stimulus packages are porks.
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they recover based on pent-up demand. that's what we're seeing, improving retail sales data. >> go ahead. >> also very important to remember that one can get a very u.s. sent trick view from here, particularly the northern part of the u.s., but we are seeing a v-shaped recovery in many countries outside, not just in the developing world. we're certainly seeing some countries starting to think about raising rates, some countries actually raising rates. we've now got 50% of profits for the s&p coming from outside the u.s. so again, i think it's the difference between main street and wall street, and when main street feels better, wall street won't feel so well because the fed will be starting to take back the liquidity punch bowl. >> fair point. it does raise the question of it's got to start happening at some point soon because if the unemployment problem continues to get worse, particularly the underemployment problem, 17 1/2% number, you could just nip all
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the potential profit growth in the bud, couldn't you? >> oh, no, i don't think so. but i think you are going to see an improvement in profits. this was a very strange recession. normally what happens in a recession is it creeps up on you gradually and your sales slow. when sales slow, people start cutting jobs. this time last october, post lehman, everybody could see it coming. companies cut back well ahead. we saw profit margins and profits do remarkably well through what has been a very steep downturn. what's going to happen now is demand comes back, they're going to have to start doing a little bit of hiring. it's going to be slow like everybody thinks. but they are, i think, you're going to see the employment picture improve next year while seasonal factors in this week's jobless claims, if we can stay below 500,000, that's very encouraging. >> interesting. fritz, real quick, subpar recovery has begotten above par stock market rebound.
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>> well, subpar recovery in a sense of perhaps 3% real gdp growth. that would be subpar compared to previous recoveries. 3% real gdp growth is trend line estimated for the united states economy today not about potential growth. i'll take it. in other words, if we get 3% real gdp growth, we're going to get the estimated profits we're talking about. >> okay. >> to rod's point, corporate profit report is more evidence that that phenomenon could take place. >> matt, i guess to his point when he says don't worry about the unemployment, it comes back to what greenhouse was saying, 20 1/2% in united states is not people in that 17 1/2%. so maybe that becomes self sparking or not, but i guess that's the bet for the bulls. all right. coming up -- >> if you're sitting in an airport watching us right now, hopefully you're not delayed. if you're delayed, have i got the gal for you.
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she is a flier's rights advocate. she's going to be here to tell us how the industry must change or face rebellion. all right. first, though, food commodities on the move and food stocks. you may want to add to your portfolio right now so you will be thankful later. maybe, you know, if the stock goes up an you make money, you can get the weight watch evers to make up for the thanksgiving. as we count down to christmas, which is what starts tomorrow, a look at some of the top retail stocks year to date.
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good morning, everyone. i'm scott cohn with the look at the stocks on the move as we enter this day before thanksgiving and trading session ahead of black friday. you're going to be hearing a lot about retailers so let's go with that. tiffany trading up 4% this
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morning after third quarter earnings topped wall street expectations. luxury retail sales were lower but make that up in cost cuts. tiffany raising the hout look by 23 cents a share. look agent a profit of $1.8 to 1.9. they say that sales will be off for the year but only by 8%, not 10%. they say the holiday season is already showing signs of being off to a good start. how about j. crew on a tear today, up about 6%. reported after the bell, beat the street. 67 cents a share on rising revenue. $414 million. combined with cost cuts, margins sumped seven points. going after shoppers cutting back this season. should put j. crew in a good position. the retail analyst at cowen says maybe a little expectation game going on here. she stays knew ultra on the stock and the company is too conservative on the guidance and that's what leads to all the surprises. matt? >> scott, thank you very much. this morning's commodity corner, breakfast edition reads like an
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ingredient list. coffee, sugar, cocoa and oj. coffee strongly higher today. up over 1%. this on a day we're seeing dollar weakness. sugar not really doing a whole lot. year to date move, 86%. trying to buy all the canity companies. interesting. cocoa, strong 2% pop here today. lastly, we mentioned oj not the inmate but there it is, up 2% on the session. if you aren't traveling today, you're probably in the kitchen getting ready for thanksgiving. before you get to work on the turkey, we got some food stocks that you may want to stuff into your portfolio. tim ramie, food and beverage analyst joining us now with insight. so, you know, this is all well and good and fun, tim, on a holiday to look at this. there's a pretty serious case to be made for some of these consumer staples right now at this point in the economy. >> that's right, matt. these stocks have been performing pretty well and we've
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got three favorites that rethought we would highlight. sara lee, diamond foods and american italian pasta for our thanksgiving wish list. >> let's break it down. you brought sara lee to the table, the company is reinventing itself and divesting, assuming that's part of your investment thesis. >> yeah, they are divesting their household and body care business and getting some surprisingly good valuations there. that represents upside for the stock. this is a company that's been reinvesting in brands. that's the most important factor for sara lee. it's now a coffee company, a bakery company, meat company. it's a good little company. >> a turkey company. and what are you wearing there, tim? >> i've got my -- you can't see it, my apron on today, so we're ready to get, you know, roll up our sleeves and get dirty here. >> i think we should disclose tim also has a winery. people on the west coast can live these amazing lives with great jobs and great lives and all.
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pinot noir. >> pinot noir is the wine for thanksgiving. maybe one from zenith vineyard for your thanksgiving activities. >> speaking of wine, there is a way to trade that in your portfolio. >> there is is. constellation brands. we have a buy rating on. and it's kind of in that trade-down space that $5 to $15 price point that so many consumers have gravitated to this year. >> why not the big bird plays, you know, the smithfields and tysons, the real meat processors? >> we've had really low protein prices and some herd liquidation. and that's kind of behind us now. we're going to see some rising protein prices. i think we're just going to have difficult times in protein. so we've really rather be in pasta, for instance, than protein right now. >> is a herd liquidation anything like an australian camel call? i'm not sure. >> you know, you stumped me on that one. >> sorry.
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erin will fill you in afterward. >> tim, you're a good sport. >> usually it's erin who throws me for a loop. >> tim, good to see you. thanks so much. >> thank you. all right. we're still waiting on that consumer sentiment data. meantime, a look at how the weather may affect travel the rest of the week and, most importantly, shopping this weekend for those who like that annual ritual, shall we say, on black friday. >> pushing and shoving and buying. big recall out from toyota out today. if you are riding to work, find out if your ride is on their list. to stay on top of my game after 50, i switched to a complete multivitamin with more. only one a day men's 50+ advantage... has gingko for memory and concentration. plus support for heart health.
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and it is time for this morning's street cap. pst cfo chris liddell leaving the company at the beginning of the year. peter cline, current chief financial officer of the business division will assume christopher's duties. aig's board giving the company the green light to pay
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ceo robert benmosche $7 million in compensation. he will get an agreed upon annual salary of $3 million in cash. $4 million in fully vested aig shares. he cannot sell the shares for five years from his august start date. i wonder if that will be a model in terms of structure and level for the banks. toyota recalling 110,000 older model tundra pickup trucks and 20 states where road salt is used. national highway safety traffic -- traffic safety administration says the salts can cause a rear portion of the frame to fail, allowing the spare tire to fall on to the roadway and posing danger to cars behind you. >> liddell wants to get the "f" out of his title, cfo and become a ceo. travel rush is on. headaches abounding, you name it, at least the weather is cooperating for now. the weather channel's jim cantore is live at o'hare and
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has an update. >> yeah, hey, matt. here's what we're dealing with in chicago. the acceptance rate with the weather is 100 planes per hour. with the winds now from the southwest and ceiling coming down a little bit, that may be reduced to 80. we may get a little bit of ground delay. you may notice the wipers going on behind me. all in all, it has gone swimmingly with respect to people traveling. gotten in and out with very little fanfare. this is is not the case everywhe everywhere. down in south florida it is dumping. three to five inches of rain, guys. some of those airports, especially tampa, especially miami, especially palm beach, we're going to have big problems in through there. tonight, you know, plan on conditions to go downhill just about everywhere across florida. anywhere chicago or new york southward. the boards up here, you can see we're pretty much on time right now. as i mention with that reduced rate coming on in, we could easily see some of those ceilings bring visibilities down to maybe two miles or less. they're going to have to reduce the amount of aircraft that come
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in here per hour. all in all, you couldn't ask for better weather so far. but florida, chicago later on today, minneapolis, those will be the hot spots for delays because of the little weather that we have will occur. back to you. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. >> have a good holiday out there at the airport. okay. we have data coming up in a couple of moments. >> michigan. >> yes, michigan. this is going to be sentiment data. i'm getting ready to when it comes we're going to see it. in the meantime, interesting that the data we have this morning so far was mixed. i know steve broke it down from a lot of angles. sort of seems like on today and friday, no one cares what the data is. trade is not so much linked to data necessarily. but you know, what are you looking at in the meantime? >> i see a crossing right now. i see the 67.4. >> 67.4. that is down from october's final reading, which was 70.6. >> yes. >> this is november's final. you're seeing consumer sentiment drop from the month of october.
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267.4. better than had been expected. economists were looking for 67. let's call that slightly in line, slightly better than expected. not seeing a lot of market movement on it. down barely now. barely up now. basically flat. what else? >> expectations, which is important because, you know, forward looking. goes to 66.5 down from 68.6. that's a pretty sharp 2 percentage point move down. the dow has gotten to an unchanged position. it's hard to say from that intraday chart, 25 minutes of trade whether we've had a move on that news. >> one final thing in here that's worth mentioning, especially in light of the fed's statement and everyone remembers they referred a few things in that statement about capacity utilization. in here you do have an inflation expectation. the 12-month forecast is down. it would add fuel to the people who are not worried about inflation camp. and the five-year inflation
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forecast, you can roll your eyes and say what do consumers know. none the less, the fed does look at this. that is flat from october at 3.0%. just around the bend, another piece of economic data. new home sales for october. rick santelli allegedly going to be ready to go at the alerts desk to bring you that number next. markets up 666. i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-i'm your only employee. we're going to start using fedex to ship globally- that means billions of potential customers. we're gonna be huge. good morning! you know business is a lot like football. i just don't understand... i'm sorry dick butkus (announcer) we understand. your business could use a pep talk. visit fedex.com/peptalk ♪ [ male announcer ] the day you give someone a lexus is just the first of many memories you'll make with it. [ children scream ] ♪
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rick santelli here. of course, going to have new home sales for october. we saw consumer confidence drop from final final october to november. listen, that isn't necessarily a good thing. sometimes a correlation with the feel good indices with the price of things like stocks isn't as directly correlated as one would think. we're expecting 404,000 or so on new home sales. that's somewhat a lateral move from last, 402,000. i'm waiting for the data show up, of course. one other thing, jobless claims is out -- 430? don't you live live tv. 430,000. that's up 6.2%. of course, that's seasonally adjusted annualized rate. better than expectations. that's versus down 3.6% in september. so you could have your own
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thoughts about new home sales in the housing industry as a whole. you know, this is still positive news. you can poke holes in it if you will. what we want to really focus on here is holiday environment sometimes gives you a glimpse of reality because traders have to adjust positions. interest rates are doing all that much today. it's all about the dollar. the dollar is taking it on the chin. back to you. and some breaking news from the federal reserve in response to the flap not too long aof go with goldman sachs. a member of the board of directors, chairman of the new york federal reserve bank, and goldman sachs became a bank holding company and he was able to buy additional stock. the fed revising that policy for fed bank directors in response to the conflict. the new policy requires the directors to resign from their federal reserve bank board or
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the private bank that they're affiliated with if a conflict develops while on the board. it requires certain directors to resign or sell stock in a firm that becomes a bank. it doesn't seem like this is a real change in policy. it's a new policy. there wasn't a policy before for a situation like goldman where investment bank becomes a bank holding company. and now i guess i throw at you david faber. david, you remember that conflict, right? >> yes, i do, indeed. >> friedman said he did nothing wrong, i want to reiterate. >> thanks, steve. yeah. let's dig deeper into it. we've gotten a lot of housing data over the course of the week. diana oel lick joins me now. existing homes two days ago. just got new home sales. diana, make sense of it all for me if you can. >> actually, this is a good number on new home sales. my concern was we were looking at the end of the first-time home buyer tax credit. people thought it was expiring november 30th. contracts signed in october, it would have to be on homes already constructed because you can't build a house in a month
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unless you're on that show on that other network. a good number coming out, boost in sales for new construction. 10% increase in existing home sales. prices still down. that's what's driving the sales. we don't have the inventory number out. we were down to 7 1/2-month supply last month. so we're probably down to a lower amount of supply this month. again, good for the builders going forward. the question is going to be how much of that demand was pulled forward when people thought the tax credit was expiring. as we go down the road down the next several months, will that demand be able to be sustained. that's my question going ahead. >> when you look back at existing home sales, for example, any new da that that has been pulled out of that number? i know they were up 10%. people got excited. the actual numbers are so small, up 60,000 year over year but still down 630,000 from two years ago. >> exactly. >> and dollar amount less than it was last year given prices have come down. >> exactly. when you're looking at lows like that, percentages are going to increa increase, even though you're not
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buying quite as many homes. what was interesting in the numbers is we're finally beginning to see move-up buyers. i've been talking for months about all the activity in home sales, that was all your investors getting in on your distressed properties. what i saw in this month's report is actually we're seeing more movement in not only the 250k to 500k but 500 to 750. once you're able to sell the lower-priced homes,buyers getting into the market. mortgage applications today, we saw weirdness in the numb best because of revisions from last month. we did see purchase a my kagszs rise even though re-fis came down. we want to see those purchase applications going up showing there's activity coming. >> diana, it's matt. i want to interject a little fun with numbers. i saw the new home month supply fell to 6.7 months, which is the lowest in a couple of years actually since -- three years, december '06. if you flip it around, 239,000 units for sale on the market
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right now. there's not that many houses. that's the lowest in 80 years, 1971, interesting. so few houses sold on a monthly basis it makes you realize how low the actual inventory -- >> and builders who stalled are beginning to hear there are folks coming, builders are beginning to start new homes. we're seeing housing starts come up a little bit. they're getting it in on homes that they stopped midway and going to finish the homes because they don't have enough supply. we have to remember, though, new homes compete directly with foreclosure because a lot of foreclosures are new construction. there's a little concern going ahead. see the foreclosures rise, how is that going to effects the new home sales. >> diana, are we done now with the latest data on the housing market for this week? >> we are never done, david. there is always new data. if you don't have it there, we will find it. it's been a big week. >> thank you. let's send it over back to erin now. >> thank you very much, david. we've been getting housing, housing, housing lately.
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let's get the market reaction. go back down to mary for that on the floor. hi, mary. >> erin, modest gains for the dow jones industrial average. choppy after the housing numbers were first reported. the dow moved basically to the best level of the session. no great shakes but still 18-point gain for the dow jones industrial average. the close at these levels it would be a new closing high for the year. counter bailing forces in today's session continue to be the weakness we are seeing in the energy sector on the other hand you are seeing the continued weakness in the dollar provide some support for the markets overall. basically the energy sector underpressure is crude oil pulled back as investors await the inventory data out this morning. different v different story for metals, gold hit another record. metals and miners are moving higher in today's session. of course, high-end retailers are in focus after tiffany came without the better than expected numbers with the third quarter. as a result of the other hi-end retailer, coach among them, all moving higher in today's
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session. dell up 15 points. we want to toss you to mike huckman at the nasdaq. >> we're up a whopping, what, 0.2% at the nasdaq or six points. we're seeing weakness creep in all over the place. for example, check out shares of this bio pharma company called incyte. it's already seen the gains cut more than in half. this company is doing a new deal with novartis, getting $210 million cash money up front. the potential for more than a billion more dollars over time. at least two analysts are say these are excellent terms. way better than they had expected. the stock is up 4% right now. more jostling in the gentleman sa sector this morning. big shock, but deitrich coffee is liking the higher offer from green mountain better than the lower offer from pete's coffee but pete's coffee is saying hold on a minute, we have until monday at 5:00 p.m. pacific time to make another move. one analysts thinks that pete's could come in with a higher
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offer. we are seeing softness in shares of microsoft on the news that its cfo is leaving the company. farmersmarket.cnbc.com. bertha, what's going on at the my nymex? >> a mixed trade. things are flat ahead of the weekly inventory numbers due out. we've got the oil inventory numbers due out at the bottom of the hour. they are expecting crude to be up 1.4 million barrels. that contrasts the petroleum institute numbers that showed 3 million barrels. gasoline, half a million. again, more bearish yesterday, up 1.7 million barrels. we'll get natgas numbers. meantime, prices at the moment are mixed. gasoline under pressure. again, because of the bearish numbers coming out of the pr petroleum institute. matt nesto, back here live at 10:30 with the numbers. >> big, too.
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more data, deluged here. virtual thanksgiving buffet. here to help us make sense of it all, head of u.s. rate strategy and keith, president and ceo at fifth third asset management. ira, what do you think here today? what should the data points is the most meaningful to you? >> the two that we really looked at were the continuing claims nums bers being a little bit better, but more importantly, and i think we have a chart of this, if you look at the extended benefits, so this is continuing claims, plus the extended benefits, that's people who have fallen off the initial unemployment rolls but still get government assistance, that's still near a high. when you still have a lot of people -- less people being laid off but you still have a job situation that's not great. but the other thing that we were looking at is the spending numbers that came out this morning. a little bit better than expected. showing that the consumers coming back a little bit. and that also goes into the savings rate. the fact is people are still saving more than they had a few years ago. but a little less than they were the month before.
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>> that leaves durable goods in the midst there, keith, for you to mop up. >> well, at this point we're looking at, you know, the employment figures. anything related to the house old sector is going to be important, matt. i think friday's data related the first impression of the holiday season will be important. and the durable side equation is another signal are things on the mend, are we starting to see consumer invigorating again. that's going to be the landscape of data that we're going to be watching. the consumer households are really, really important over the next 12 months. >> keith, when we look at the kay schuller numbers as one of the housing data points we received this week, home prices in america are back to where they were in 2003. i'm curious, if that does not change over the next couple of years, is our economy pretty much stuck in a situation where it really can't grow either? that is the single most important piece of most american's wealth. >> our view is that the real estate rise was a dramatic rise, reached a bubble proportions. it's been a three-year
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correction. we've probably troughed this year. erin, we think that the real estate conditions are probably going to continue to churn off the bottom condition for two years or so. as investors, as you start looking forward, real estate might be one of the most attractive area it is you have a seven- or ten-year horizon. the trough is going to be extended, 2012. we need the inventory to clear. >> keith, thank you very much. >> thanks. coming up, the executive director of fliersrights.org. why our transportation system is such a mess and for most people traveling such a frankly miserable experience that people dread. plus, 29 days until christmas. two days until black friday, though. see how to play retail this holiday season as we hit the break, let's take a look at dillard's. it's on the list of best-performing retailers for 2009 with a nice 322% haul.
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i don't remember anybody telling me that last year. buy dillard's. 300% move this year.
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all right, folks. welcome back, the dow is up 12 points. just about a tenth of a percent. if you look at it, i show 20 or 30 members trading higher here today. alcoa, amex looking at a good day. weakness in shares of kraft and jpmorgan and coca-cola.
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also, new home sales if you saw it for october, they were up sharply. 6.2% to a 430,000 annualized pace. that's the best level this year. weekly jobless claims fall to the lowest level to more in the year. 466,000 is the print. and consumer income grew 0.2% in october. they spent, however, 0.7%. one thing we wanted to highlight just looking up today and noticing this, we talked about how volume is light and swings can be dramatic. volatility as measured by the vix is right now, first of all, you can see the trend, matt, since just dropping the whole year. we right now are at the lowest levels we have seen for the vix since august 2008. right before the entire period of tumult began. >> something big is going to happen, right? >> that could be. >> something big happening right now back at hq. scott cohn is right there in the swirl with the realtime flash.
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>> we are. it's big. the big thing is the shopping list i have on my way home from work today because it's thanksgiving tomorrow and one of the stocks we're looking at the hooi heinz. the jar gray zvy, it's raising guidance. it's not the gravy, it's the weak dollar. weak dollar hurts strong sales and emerging markets, including nutritional beverages in india. sales grew 2 1/2% in the most recent quarter. company raising the guidance for the full fiscal year to 272 to 282 a share. stock is up fractionally today. got your tyson turkey, wall street consensus, a buy on the stock of tyson. analysts have been trimming their estimates, trimming, on the stock. they look at 11 cents a share on the current quarter. company will present bank of america conference in new york next week.
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thursday, december 3rd. and here's sara lee for your pi pumpkin pie. some saying the budget conscious consumers will help them. when you're done with it all, take an antacid. that stock is up strongly today. i don't know if that's antacid sales but we had to throw it in. erin? >> have fun with it. thank you, scott. while you're getting ready for your thanksgiving feast, retailers are gearing up for one of the busiest shopping days of the year. we all refer to it as black friday. and even with the internet and people shopping earlier, it still is an important day. what companies are going to do the best on that day and through the holiday season? a specialty retail analyst with jeffries, nora warsaw, options trader with group1 trading, retails exchange rated funds. great to have you was. randy, let me start with you. i've had a couple of experiences myself over the past few weeks, at specialty retailers and department stores where inventory has been so low that they're sold out. that's necessarily perhaps a
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sign of strength, just that they weren't even ready for the shopping that people are doing. have retailers short changed themselves this year? >> no, i think retailers will be able to chase through the holiday season. the one good news for this inventory here is inventories in the channel are tracking below demand for the first time in over a year. what that means is is retailers are going to show significant margin strength this holiday season. we think fourth quaur earnings exceed expectations by a wide margin. we think sales will start to accelerate as we get through the remainder of the fourth quarter here. particularly during christmas. so we think retailers will be able to chase goods through the end of the year. >> through the end of the year and then what, randy? i mean, we had talked to textainer, the container company. they said, hey, retailers are getting ready to stock more after christmas to build up inventories. do you think there's the consumer demand for that? >> we do, actually. if you look at october same-store sales, september and august same-store sales, retailers posted very strong back to school results.
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we think that shows a high correlation into the holiday shopping season. we think consumers will spend better in holiday. and we also have strong pent-up demand for this spring season of 2010. so we think consumers will follow through on better than expected spending in holiday with stronger spending in the spring of 2010. >> certainly retail and etfs have been the place to be. some have said they're ahead of themselves given the weakness we have seen unprecedented weakness in our lives of consumer credit. how do you justify out performance in the market and underperformance in the wallet? >> well, i think the main catalyst for the move hier is things are so bad it's inevitable they had to improve. tremendous run in xrt take place since march. etfs over 100% since the low of 1 18. volatility is lower consistent with the celloff and cbo volatility index hovering just above 20. implied volatility in xrt is
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hanging around 30 with volatility going higher in the back months consistent with the struck dhur of overall domestic equities as a whole. >> randy, because of this lean inventory there's not going to be a lot of stuff around for the resellers to package up, like the t.j. maxx's which buy the odd lots and ship them out. do you think there's any traction to that notion? >> the off-pricers are expanding their vendor base so t.j. and ross store, however, the good brands they've been getting over the last year inclusive of ralph lauren and nautica, et cetera, is going to weane. that will put pressure on them. >> happy thanksgiving to you both. >> thank you. >> thank you. just ahead, the faber report and breaking energy inventory news. that's at 10:30 eastern. and later, your flight is late. you miss your connection. your baggage is in, let's just
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say, chicago, but you are not. your rage builds. i don't know if there is an effective way to deal with that, but we're going to find a way to hopefully change that. something building across the country. we're back in two minutes with that. i drove my first car from my parent's home
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in the north of england to my new job at the refinery in the south. i'll never forget. it used one tank of petrol and i had to refill it twice with oil. a new car today has 95% lower emissions than in 1970. exxonmobil is working to improve cars, liners of tires, plastics which are lighter and advanced hydrogen technologies
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that could increase fuel efficiency by up to 80%.
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welcome back. interesting news out of the dubai this morning. of course, the emirate well-known for goinging itself on real estate development, tallest building in the world. erin, of course, having been there very recently. this morning dubai world, government-owned holding company that has $59 billion in debt has
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said it would like to reach a stand still agreement with its creditors who have been expecting actually to be paid in the not too distant future, at least on some of that debt in terms of interest payments owned. dubai asking for a stand still on dubai world and specifically as well, debt associated with nakheel pjse. one of the builders of dubai's many islands that they, of course, those manmade islands that they created there. they've are negotiating to extend maturities on debt. and for that matter, the country owes $4.3 billion next month and another $4.9 billion in the first quarter of 2010. again, that is interest and principle payments that will be owed. dubai world, $59 billion in liabilities. and dubai itself, when you add that in and then other obligations of the government, $80 billion outstanding
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obligations. this is, as you might expect, having a significant impact on the bonds of dubai. of nakheel, dubai world, and also dubai's sovereign debt as well. nakheel bonds as much as 20 points lower. that's not a good day. get this. the five-year cds, credit default swaps, on dubai's sovereign debt are widening as much as 120 basis points, according to market participants now trading in the mid 400s. that makes it one of the worst sovereign credits out there right now. dubai world, of course, also known for having contributed as significant amount in financing to the huge property. citi center property, currently -- actually opening for business in las vegas. the rest of the region, by the way, also seeing the cds on sovereign debt gapping out as you take a look on the lovely scenery in dubai where, well,
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times have gotten tough since the money dried up. send it over now to -- actual lie, we have breaking energy news. let's go to erin. erin, curious, you, of course, have been to the emirate very recently. give me some thoughts here in terms of this news and what it means. >> well, you know, what's interesting when you were talking agent nakheel have the islands and the atlantis, too, that opened in dubai was part of that with soleil, the person in control there. one thing that's interesting, david, when you add in all of dubai's debt, $80 billion, there's that whole abu dhabi angle here, richer, emirate rival/partner, they are going to bail them out at below market interest rates in exchange for eventual control perhaps some would say. when you talk implicit guarantees, dubai does have it
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in the form of abu dhabi. >> abu dhabi has already placed or dubai placed $5 million in bonds with abu dhabi banks, i believe. gets a bit complicated. although, a hope for step up for as much as $20 billion. that has not been the case yet. >> interesting to see whether they do. they have a lot at stake. as i said, maybe they are rivals, but abu dhabi certainly wants dubai to succeed in the sense that they want to continue to be a, quote, unquote, center for tourism and we shall see. >> is it true that there are all of these, you know, empty luxury cars left at the parking lot at the airports by people who couldn't pay for them any longer? >> it's interesting. sort of one part of the airport where you could see that. look, the place is a lot quieter as it used to be. no question. amazing how many tourists there were. they have a tracking device going into the malls. still at a couple 100,000 people at night when it's cool enough to go in there. german tourists, the bubble has burst but there is a baseline. i guess the question is where.
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>> exactly. back to you. >> all right. it is an interesting one. back with breaking energy news in a couple minutes. dddd
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm bertha coombs in the pits here at the nymex. the numbers are out from the government. weekly inventory saw crude inventories up 1 million barrels. that was less than expected. they expected a build of about
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1.4. gasoline a little bit bearish on that number. build 1 million. the expectation had been for a build of about 500,000. but that was below what we saw yesterday with the api numbers. and distillates were a more bullish number. draw down of 500,000 barrels. distillates include heating oil. the numbers have moved a bit. crude oil back above $76 a barrel. moving higher. we also have heating oil moving higher. gasoline still trading down a couple of cents here. matt, despite these numbers, the weekly spending pulse from mastercard shows that gasoline demand is down about 1.6%. that's because we're up nearly 80 cents a gallon as we go into the holiday weekend. back to you. >> interesting. thanks, bertha. appreciate it. i just noticed that energy is the only sector that's down. it's down only 0.08%.
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there's the dow, 18 points higher. s&p is up two points. nasdaq with a quarter of a percent move up itself. nyse is going to be 2-1 positive. comparable at the nasdaq. slight positive bias. the drum roll, please. oh, look at that, 6-5. 6-5, erin burnett. >> okay. 7:30 on the west coast. 10:30 here on wall street. jobless claims coming in under the key levels. home sales meantime litting their highest level since september of last year. and we are just learning president obama plans a major address on afghanistan, the future, the strategy, and the troop levels. tuesday, he will give it from west point, of course, where general petraeus graduated at 8:00 eastern. >> with the exclusivity of a swiss bank account isn't what it used to be the scott cohn talking exclusively to the ceo of the swiss bankers
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association. scott? >> the exclusivity, matt, and the secrecy, big changes in what traditionally has been a hey screen for investors looking for privacy and maybe to look to be away from scrutiny and taxes. it has gained momentum as so many countries grapple with budget shortfalls. the swiss took some time to come around but now are fully engaged. no greater evidence than that than the settlement between the u.s. and ubs which yielded the names of thousands of suspected tax cheats. what is the point of a swiss bank account anymore? the association tells us, don't worry, very little has changed. >> they get the same level of service. they get excellent service levels, excellent product, global products, even in retail quantity. they get still the account relationship, the banking relationship in a country which is extremely stable.
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>> he says honest customers don't need to worry at all. they can still expect the same level of secrecy, or we h likes to refer to it as privacy. roth has been pushing what is a controversial idea to maintain that banking privacy, but prevent tax evasion. a global withholding tax on bank deposits. >> we believe that what matters at this point in time is that's all the countries receive their full share of taxpayers' money. >> so what do you think? do you want some tax withheld from the interest on your savings account? roth says this would only work if everyone signs on, which probably makes it a little less likely any time soon. all of this is a big change, a seismic change for the normally secretive swiss. matt? er in? >> cool. thanks very much. coming up on "squawk on the street," you know, they say you might have saved the ship but you could have lost the captain.
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why the economic recovery could lead to an executive exodus in the boardroom across america. we're going to tackle that one in our "daily jobs report." >> steve is hard at work. plus, sitting at the airport for hours on the runway without food, without water, and with many smells. we'll show you an effective way to complain and actually be heard, be productive. and we've got a check on the oil following the inventory report that you heard there. right now, crude is down just slightly. shy of $76 a barrel. fithe same tools the pros use, so you can be a disciplined trader. by selecting from eight advanced triggers, your order gets executed, even when you're busy. and with trailing stops to help you lock in profits and minimize risk, you can be confident in your strategy, no matter which way the market moves. find out why more and more active traders are turning to fidelity
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here is a look at amazon.com. down just about 25 cents. look over the past year. nearly tripling. incredible, one of the top-performing retail stocks in 2009. right now in a heated battle with walmart.
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matt? >> yeah, by market cap, it's bigger than most of its peers other than, of course, walmart. if you have a bad case of plane rage if you really want to get the attention of the airline, the best way to do it may be to tweet about it. cnbc's phil lebeau is live at chicago o'hare airport now with that story. >> reporter: and you know, matt, what you're looking at is a situation where more and more people are looking or some way to be heard, especially this thanksgiving season. now, if people are flying, they're going to see the planes are packed as much as ever, even though there's 60 r. 6% fewer people flying because the airplanes have cut back on their capacity. but good weather means we should see fewer delays. still, there will be complaints. and customers are increasingly posting those complaints online. that's why a number of airlines are setting up facebook and twitter accounts, so that they can engage with those complaints as soon as they're filed. >> let's face it. those conversations are going to happen with or without us.
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we would much rather be engaged in the conversation and be listening to our customers. that's really what it's all about. it's about talking and listening and engaging in the conversation with our customers. >> well, the airlines say they're listening to the customers, but do the people who are actually filing the complaints do, they actually think that they're going to be heard? >> i don't think it's going to do anything if i complain, i just think it's going to go into the inbox but never get to someone that's going to make a change. so why bother? >> wouldn't be heard, so i wouldn't even bother doing it. >> reporter: mixed reaction when we talked to people out here about whether or not they would go online to lodge a complaint against an airline. but keep this in mind, matt and erin, there is an instant reaction that you get from the airlines if you do go on facebook or you go to a website and you say, hey, listen, i was on this flight. they did x, y, z, terrible service. you will get a reaction from the airline rather quickly because
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they realize not good to let this be out there festering online. so that's what we're going to see more and more from the airlines when it comes to handling complaints. >> i can't see how the airlines and rabid ticker agents can keep it to 140 characters or less and tweet. that's going to take some work. >> reporter: yep, absolutely. >> thanks. >> reporter: that's less than 140 characters. >> all right. let's talk about some solutions now with the faa computer problems last week leading to nationwide delays and last year's debacle with continental and express in minnesota, you may recall when that flight load of people were kept on the tarmac for six or eight hours. it resulted in $100,000 fine announced yesterday against the airline. it's no wonder airline passengers frankly believe traveling is a miserable experience. kate is the executive director of fliersrights.org. so, kate, this is tough. i guess let's just start with this continental express
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situation. the people on the plane sat for six or eight hours. can't get off the plane. now a year later continental express jet is fined $100,000. it's almost seems like an insultingly low figure. >> not only is it insultingly low, but the airline passengers on that plane are not going to see a dime of those fines. and the fine was not imposed for them sitting for three hours. it was imposed because the airline made a commitment not to hold them longer than three hours in their customer service commitments. so the fine was actually for false advertising. it wasn't really because they held them so long. >> that's amazing. that really is amazing. >> that's why our legislation is necessary or some kind of regulation is necessary in order to ensure that the airlines have some law they need to abide by and if there are fines imposed, such as in the european union where a two-hour or more delay you get compensation, 250 euros or 600 euros, then, you know, we
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seriously need to make sure that passengers who are the one suffering the losses get a portion at least of the fines. >> what do you do? when you're just in a regular person like we've all been in this situation, where your luggage is lost, sitting on the tarmac. it almost seems impossible to get anyone to listen to you. if you do get a frazzled customer service representative, they're just trying to make you go away. >> you're right. it started with my event -- actually started in detroit in 1999, but what we did is not what i would do in the future. when somebody calls me and says i'm stuck on the tarmac. we have a toll free hot line on our website that people can call. the first thing i do is do you mind media attention, i will get the media immediately to the airport if they've been out there for more than three hours. and/or i will call the airport manager and i will let them know that i'm about to call the media. that's how we get people off planes. it's certainly cumbersome and it's not the way it should be done, but if they call us, they will get results.
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it's uncomfortable for the airlines and the airports to have media looking at them, making these mistakes. and it seems to be the only way absent meaningful rights that we can fix it. now, the faa modernization bill must pass. if we don't get some type of systems in place by the year 2025 with no intervention, we will have 100% gridlock based on mathematical predictions made by very, very smart people at nasa. so, you know, something that must be addressed in a prioriva of ways. how can we prevent it from happening in the future. >> kate, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thanks, erin. >> it raises the question about the issue of just gridlock, we haven't modernized the flight path plans that could be changed that slow down how many people can get from one place to
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another and how quickly. going to cost a lot more money. we'll talk one day about whether we should use stimulus cash for that or not. >> we spend money on lesser things, i might argue. >> you might. just ahead, why more than 90% of corporate executives are thinking about jumping ship and whether you should rejoice or be sad in that particular statistic. "squawk on the street's" "daily jobs report" is next. but first, trish regan with what you can expect or are you expecting only on "the call"? >> i am expecting, most defin e definitely expecting in a couple of weeks, two little babies. more about that later. coming up at the top of the hour, home shopping network qvc trying to make an aggressive attempt here to keep you from the malls on this black friday and watching its network home, watching its network instead. in a cnbc exclusive we will talk live with qvc's ceo on its new strategy. and tiffany out with earnings. the economy is turning around.
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we are going to look at the numbers and talk about what this means for the consumer, what this means for you as an investor going forward. we all that plus the latest of the economic news out this morning all coming out on "the call" at the top of the hour. but first, "squawk on the street" is back after this break. q
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a report of on executive networking signals that companies may be sorry they didn't put more sorry about retaining talent during the economic downturn. save the ship but lose the captain. 2009 executive retention report finds more than more than 90% of executives would take it a recruiters -- about a new opportunity and more than 50% surveyed are looking for a new job. now, in this morning, the daily jobs report, we're talking with mark anderson, a private business network that conducted the survey and joni -- who i
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also did a separate survey. i'll start, joni, with you. people are talking the calls. the whole thing is that this is an indicator. >> i think that everybody's been through a difficult last few years. they've had to deal with pay cuts and freezes and lets staff go and trying to drive productivity with less people. unfortunately, a lot of them are probably feeling their companies are not appreciating them at much, so they may be a bit more hopeful that is the grass greener somewhere else. >> mark, your survey is showing pretty much a similar thing. >> that's what it really indicated. two things. executives are engaged, but restless and companies have taken their eye off the ball in
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retention. two years ago, those numbers were 40% and 2/3 of companies were really focussing on retention and that's now less than 40%. so there's a looming issue for corporate management and for those leaders to keep their teams together. >> but a lot of people watching just get furious when they hear this. they say a lot of these people, american ceos make more money than any country in the world and this is outrageous. let these guys be mad and forget them. >> i don't think they're mad. they're actually taking active step to say, i've got to be protected like everyone else feels. >> i'm saying americans are mad. >> but what happens is when companies lose their talent, their growth slows. their competitive advantage is their people. >> how does this link to
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compensation, joni? there were studies that showed executives will making even more to relative workers. >> yeah, and there's a lot of talk about that now. there's been pay cuts across the board and i think a lot of company rs being more optimistic about 2010 that they may start to see increases, but we're still seeing the freezes at the real executive levels. i think that's still tight right now. so companies are cautious about what to do. >> do you see any trends between sectors? >> definitely. we work with clients in all different sectors and unfortunately, we have seen of course, manufacturing, construction, of course, has been the hardest hit. the job increases are not coming back in those cities, so it's still tough. the other sectors we see that are more promising, a lot happening in health care.
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there's going to be opportunities there and probably opportunities to get paid a little bit more. accounting and finance is strong, engineering. so, there are some hope. >> where do you see people doing to most jumping ship and are they getting more money when they jump? >>. >> they definitely are. the studies we show are are close to depends on your condition. if you've been in transition, it's much lower than if you're in demand from a situation you're in already. it's about 17% if you're changing jobs. probably 2% if you're in transition. >> but a 17% -- a 2% raise for some, that's still better than a lot of people would expect. >> in short, keep your day job. >> what you want to do, and this is what we tell our members, you need to be creating options for yourself throughout your career and at every moment. that's what we're seeing. they're not planning on jumping
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ship for a higher salary. they're trying to say that i'm managing my career and right now, the risk of staying is greater than the risk of leaving. but that's going to change with the recovery that's coming. companies manage talent and that's their competitive advantage. >> thank you very much. we've got six stocks in 60 seconds on the other side of the break. plus, a small but pront correction.
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. ready? little correction. let's do "six in 60." we each get three and i believe i go first. >> go, girl. >> and let's go. i didn't. deere and company reporting fourth quarter numbers. the maker of screen trackers had earnings of 23 cents. analysts were looking up for three cents, i believe. tiffany turned in better than
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pek expected numbers. aig's board giving the company the green light to pay. sorry. matt, go. >> microsoft's cfo's leaving the company at the end of the year. he wants to be a ceo. the accelerator pedals, causing it to get stuck under the floor mat. lastly, the correction had to do with heinz. they raised guidance to 282 a share and the stock is little changed on the news. >> now, it's time for the correction. >> the buzz was for the use of the word. the second to last, the day before christmas eve -- >> the 23rd. any way. >> doesn't work. >> we made a mistake and we're sorry, but hey, thanks to all of you who

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